The recent death of Megaupload has me thinking about the future of file-sharing. Ignoring the right or wrong, let’s focus instead on where it’s likely to go from here. After all, while Megaupload was certainly more a destination for file-sharers seeking copyrighted files, the model is not that much different than, say, DropBox.

The main difference is in the network of people involved. You’re unlikely to find as many people with as many files in your DropBox circle than in any service akin to Megaupload. But then consider how digital information spreads. You only really need one person capable of obtaining one copy of any media, and it will effectively spread to all people sharing his DropBox folder. For someone sharing pics of newborn little Billy, how quickly sharing a DB folder can occur is no mystery.

Sure, there are size constraints, but unlike with tanks, for intellectual property, size does not always matter. Consider the worth of tiny plug-in Izotope Nectar to a sound engineer. Such a file would take only minutes to share on DropBox, and would fill only a fraction of the 2Gb free account.

So when a service such as Megupload is taken down, and with such dramatic and perfervid flare by rights-holders and their cadre of lawyers, it’s not that file-sharing stops or even decreases. Rather, it’s simply more likely that it moves further into the shadows. Perhaps fewer people will be tempted to try pay-to-play file-sharing services or even bit torrent, but they would grow more inclined to ask files of their friend who IS intrepid enough to download warez regardless of industry threats. And DropBox and its ilk provides a safe and semi-private rendezvous for such sharing.

This is certainly not to indict DropBox; it’s quite clear that they provide a service that – just like cars or booze or handguns – CAN be used to violate the law, but violation is indeed not it’s primary purpose. (And – frankly – one cannot argue that the “harm” caused by swapping files using such services compares with the potential harm of drunk driving or poor gun safety, either).

This is more to express what anyone immersed in copyright culture understands – even the rights-holders: that sharing is as native to the digital age as texting or email. No matter how much gloom and doom lines the occasional “victory” claimed by the copyright rich.